2010 Fantasy Guide
It’s about that time again this year to start thinking about fantasy football. This year is interesting; it seems as if the last few seasons have been dominated by quarterbacks and wide receivers while running backs took a “back seat”. Running backs are making a strong comeback with possibly 8 of the top 10 players in the league. Expect to see a quick run off of running backs at the beginning of the draft. Outside of guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Andre Johnson I would be shocked to see anybody else but guys at the running back position flying off the board. Don’t let that fool you however; if your league rewards wide receivers with a point per reception (PPR) then the final scores last season would suggest that receivers are more valuable than running backs. In fact 76% of the top 30 players at flex positions (rb, wr, te) were receivers.
The wr position is very deep this season which is why it is not imperative to snatch a wide out immediately like last year. Plenty of wr’s will fall in the draft, successful ones at that, guys like Donald Driver, Hines Ward, and Mike Sims-Walker who after one year as the #1 guy in Jacksonville has a better grasp of the system and should continue produce. As far as qb’s go the 2 I mentioned before are more than reliable options, Drew Brees is a model of consistency and accuracy while Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season where he was the #1 quarterback in fantasy. Chances are these guys won’t be around unless you go after them real early. Everyone knew what Drew Brees was capable of going into last season and he still slipped to many people in the 3rd round of the draft, not that many people are going to make that mistake this year. QB’s that will likely be there in the early third round that are worth giving a look are Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Tom Brady.
Selecting your first player can be difficult; there is a lot of pressure to hit a home run with your pick in the first round because it sets the tone for the rest of your team. Every season will bring its share of disappointments in the first round but you have a good chance of selecting someone who can live up to the hype. Let’s take a look at a general consensus of what the first round looked like last season.
Round 1:
1. Adrian Peterson rb
2. Maurice Jones-Drew rb
3. Matt Forte rb
4. Steve Slaton rb
5. Michael Turner rb
6. Steven Jackson rb
7. Chris Johnson rb
8. DeAngelo Williams rb
9. Drew Brees qb
10. Frank Gore rb
11. Larry Fitzgerald wr
12.Andre Johnson wr
Give or take some of the draft slots this is what a typical 12 team first round looked like. Some guys did exactly what we expected (MJD), some guys under performed but were still fantasy gold (A.P.), and others completely tanked (Steve Slaton). Now, while Adrian Peterson didn’t do what everyone expected him to do he still crushed most other running backs in points this year (A.P. was 4th overall in points for rb’s in 2009). MJD was strong and will again be a top 3 pick in most 2010 drafts. Matt Forte and Steve Slaton were the only 2 major let downs from last years first round. Forte is no better than a 6th or 7th round draft pick this year and Slaton might not even get drafted. Michael Turner didn’t do what all the hype told us he was going to do but a lot of fantasy experts see big things coming from him this year, Turner is still projected to go in the top 5 of most drafts. Turner definitely has the talent, supporting cast, and offensive scheme to be a successful running back in this league. Do I even need to talk about what Chris Johnson did? He should be the #1 pick in every draft this year no question. Larry Fitzgerald falls under the same category as A.P., as he didn’t do badly but he just didn’t put up the numbers that were expected of him. Larry Fitz was still a top 6 wr in ’09. Those are two guys that fell victim to high expectations. What you can take away from this going into this years draft is tailor back some of your expectations towards these “sexy” picks. As I said before, every season will bring its share of disappointments but you have a good chance of selecting someone who can produce first round type numbers. Only 3 or 4 players out of 12 didn’t deserve to be drafted anywhere near the first round. I’ll take those odds going into the 2010 draft.
It’s about that time again this year to start thinking about fantasy football. This year is interesting; it seems as if the last few seasons have been dominated by quarterbacks and wide receivers while running backs took a “back seat”. Running backs are making a strong comeback with possibly 8 of the top 10 players in the league. Expect to see a quick run off of running backs at the beginning of the draft. Outside of guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Andre Johnson I would be shocked to see anybody else but guys at the running back position flying off the board. Don’t let that fool you however; if your league rewards wide receivers with a point per reception (PPR) then the final scores last season would suggest that receivers are more valuable than running backs. In fact 76% of the top 30 players at flex positions (rb, wr, te) were receivers.
The wr position is very deep this season which is why it is not imperative to snatch a wide out immediately like last year. Plenty of wr’s will fall in the draft, successful ones at that, guys like Donald Driver, Hines Ward, and Mike Sims-Walker who after one year as the #1 guy in Jacksonville has a better grasp of the system and should continue produce. As far as qb’s go the 2 I mentioned before are more than reliable options, Drew Brees is a model of consistency and accuracy while Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season where he was the #1 quarterback in fantasy. Chances are these guys won’t be around unless you go after them real early. Everyone knew what Drew Brees was capable of going into last season and he still slipped to many people in the 3rd round of the draft, not that many people are going to make that mistake this year. QB’s that will likely be there in the early third round that are worth giving a look are Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Tom Brady.
Selecting your first player can be difficult; there is a lot of pressure to hit a home run with your pick in the first round because it sets the tone for the rest of your team. Every season will bring its share of disappointments in the first round but you have a good chance of selecting someone who can live up to the hype. Let’s take a look at a general consensus of what the first round looked like last season.
Round 1:
1. Adrian Peterson rb
2. Maurice Jones-Drew rb
3. Matt Forte rb
4. Steve Slaton rb
5. Michael Turner rb
6. Steven Jackson rb
7. Chris Johnson rb
8. DeAngelo Williams rb
9. Drew Brees qb
10. Frank Gore rb
11. Larry Fitzgerald wr
12.Andre Johnson wr
Give or take some of the draft slots this is what a typical 12 team first round looked like. Some guys did exactly what we expected (MJD), some guys under performed but were still fantasy gold (A.P.), and others completely tanked (Steve Slaton). Now, while Adrian Peterson didn’t do what everyone expected him to do he still crushed most other running backs in points this year (A.P. was 4th overall in points for rb’s in 2009). MJD was strong and will again be a top 3 pick in most 2010 drafts. Matt Forte and Steve Slaton were the only 2 major let downs from last years first round. Forte is no better than a 6th or 7th round draft pick this year and Slaton might not even get drafted. Michael Turner didn’t do what all the hype told us he was going to do but a lot of fantasy experts see big things coming from him this year, Turner is still projected to go in the top 5 of most drafts. Turner definitely has the talent, supporting cast, and offensive scheme to be a successful running back in this league. Do I even need to talk about what Chris Johnson did? He should be the #1 pick in every draft this year no question. Larry Fitzgerald falls under the same category as A.P., as he didn’t do badly but he just didn’t put up the numbers that were expected of him. Larry Fitz was still a top 6 wr in ’09. Those are two guys that fell victim to high expectations. What you can take away from this going into this years draft is tailor back some of your expectations towards these “sexy” picks. As I said before, every season will bring its share of disappointments but you have a good chance of selecting someone who can produce first round type numbers. Only 3 or 4 players out of 12 didn’t deserve to be drafted anywhere near the first round. I’ll take those odds going into the 2010 draft.
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